10,000 Russian soldiers dead in Ukraine?Why the report published in the Moscow press is credible

On Sunday, a reputable Russian media close to the Kremlin released a report on the site that it estimates the number of Russian losses in Ukraine to be about 10,000 dead since the invasion began. The number was deleted almost instantly. Uncertainty remains in this highly confidential statistic.

Historically, tabloids Komsomolskaya Prouda It was always near the Kremlin. A direct heir to the official newspaper of the “Communist and Leninist Youth” under the Soviet administration, and as specified here by the French Inter, now to the oligarch Grigory Bereskain near Vladimir Putin. Belongs. But by announcing Russia’s military loss balance sheet in Ukraine since the start of the invasion on Sunday (a much higher balance sheet than perceived by the administration), the media will undoubtedly be a little in the relationship with the president. I felt calm.

Therefore, during the 30 minutes following posting an article on the site on Sunday Komsomolskaya Prouda, We read that in almost a month of war, troops sent from Moscow to Ukraine lost 9,861 soldiers and lamented 16,153 injured. The Kremlin, meanwhile, has maintained the most absolute silence on this subject ever since, after admitting 498 deaths on March 2. Our military consultant, General Jérôme Pellistrandi, helps us see things more clearly.

Embarrassment and “hacking”

As soon as they are published, as soon as they are withdrawn.The number of Russian soldiers who died in Ukraine on Sunday Komsomolskaya Prouda Therefore, it is not available for a long time, but it is eloquent. Relying on a briefing from the Ministry of Defense-professing the paper-it found that 9,861 invaders were killed in a three-week battle and 16,153 soldiers were already injured. It far exceeds the death toll of the last 498 local civil servants.

At his press conference this Tuesday, Russian Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov did not find it appropriate to comment on Inblogrio after being asked about it. However, the media at the heart of the turmoil was justified through the press release cited here by France Amfo. “Access to the admin interface was hacked on the site and a fake was added to the article.”..

Media war

“Hacking”, a courageous explosion of honesty … or reckless ill-advised off, One of the elements sent to make journalists scent, but does the publisher want to be communicated to the general public? However, in this media war that doubles the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, this event makes Kyiv happy, as the French Amfo site still points out. In fact, on Twitter, Mikhail Podryak, adviser to President Zelensky and head of the delegation of the Ukrainian Ambassador to the Plenipotentiary in the ongoing negotiations, was pleased.

“Russian lie art is no longer enough. The Russian Defense Ministry has been forced to officially admit that it was 9861 people, not 500 soldiers, who died. In the real world, c It’s almost doubled, “he added.

That’s because the balance sheet, accidentally published by the Russian tabloid, is inconsistent with the one proposed by the Ukrainian government on Tuesday and broadcast on Twitter. Kyiv Independent, The number of Russians who fell during these military operations is estimated to be 15,300.

The equation is, in principle, more complicated with the third sum created this time by a more independent source. Stopped his calculations shortly before the three-week dispute, New York Times Therefore, on March 16, 7,000 Russian soldiers were killed and 14,000 to 21,000 were injured.

The balance sheet released on Sunday is probably close to reality

So who do you believe in? For our military consultant, General Jerome Peristlandy, the numbers released in the Russian press on Sunday should not be far from the truth anyway. “9,861 people died, which seems to be in perfect agreement with estimates of Western services interested in having the most accurate numbers possible in this media battle,” he said on Tuesday. Confess to us.

And this arbitration does not come from anywhere. It is based on an informal theorem well known to officers. “The rule is to get the number killed in the army,” says General Peristlandy. “We take the number of destroyed vehicles, quadruple it, and the number of injured,” he continues.

The Dutch company Oryx keeps an accurate and up-to-date list of the serious damage suffered by the fighters. According to her, the Russians have already lost at least 1700 vehicles in close quarters. This would result in a total of 6800 deaths by applying the proposed multiplication.

Russian military doctrine is out of date

Accumulation surprised by the modern era when people are more accustomed to drone attacks than battles. “It’s a very bad surprise for the Russians. They didn’t plan it at all,” confirms Jerome Peristlandy, who compares: I die for more than 10 years.

Our interlocutor gives an element of explanation: “Russian doctrine calls for violent confrontation, so the loss is greater than in the armed forces of countries that prefer precision shooting.”

Therefore, this phenomenon would be related to the form of Russian military tradition, with less attention than others about the cost of men’s fighting. Except that we are no longer in the Empire of the Emperor or the Soviet Union. “They no longer have the power of the Red Army, and there is public opinion in Russia, which means that we can no longer sacrifice as many soldiers as in the past,” commented General Peristlandy. I am. He also warns: “The lack of a solid logistical Russian army is paying more for the injured.”

Deceleration in sight of hell machines

Perhaps this pace is consuming too many human lives, pushing Russia’s attacks to change their face. Some inertia followed after the flash of the first day when the Kremlin was still dreaming of a blitzkrieg. From Chernihiv in the north to Mariupol in the south, the martyred cities are resisting and the Russians are trampling. Therefore, we have moved from a war of movement to a war of position, translated by a duel between cannons and strikes-a dialogue dominated by the voice of Russia.

According to our interlocutors, this new distance of the Russian army tends to make the plane speak more cautiously than exposed to the front, potentially changing perspectives and saving the lives of several people.As they move from dynamic battles to static battles, they can be considered diminished if the Russian attack fails. de facto“.

Robin Burner

Robin Burner BFMTV journalist