A new boom in pollution, no impact on hospitals yet

Two years ago, France had just entered its first imprisonment. Two years later, despite many scientific advances on the front lines of Covid-19, the pandemic is far from ancient history.

One week has passed since the vaccination pass was abandoned, and masks are no longer required except for transportation and hospitals. Despite the fact that the Omicron wave has not yet completely subsided and the country is experiencing a new epidemic rebound caused by the BA.2 subvariant, a certain resurgence has occurred before that and is now contaminated. It occupies the majority.

Health Minister Olivier Véran could reach up to 100,000 positive cases per day last week, based on the Pasteur Institute’s predictions, but the current rebound exceeds the end of March without burdening the hospital. I presumed that it should not continue. How to justify the choice to lift almost all health restrictions when the situation at the time of the announcement was not as good as expected.

Incidence is rising again

After the second week of March, the Covid-19 cycle began to rise again after a sharp decline of six weeks. However, it was only in the past week that the rise in incidence accelerated and returned to the levels seen in the last week of February. If our five sectors show an incidence below the national incidence (823 per 100,000 inhabitants), we all see them rising for eight days.

Nonetheless, even Loire, which has the fifth highest incidence (418) in France, is expected to jump as much as 48%, similar to the Rhone. In Ein, this increase is 51% in Jura and even 60%. Only Haute-Loire, France’s eighth highest incidence (486), has a more modest increase (+ 21.5%).

As of March 20, the test positive rate exceeded 27% in three of the five categories. Therefore, Haute-Loire, Ein and Jura show higher rates than the national average of 25.3%. On the other hand, the Loire and Rhone (18.7%), which have a positive rate of 21.5%, are well below.

Also, there are differences in the age groups most affected by the department. In Ein, the positive rate exceeded 31% at 30/39, 40/49, 50/59, 70/79 years, and in Jura, it was the highest at 0/9 years (37.7%) and 70/79 years (37.7%). .. 31%). In Haute-Loire, children (0/9 and 10/19 years old) and their parents (30/39 and 40/49 years old) are mainly interested in positive rates from 32.3% to 35,5%.

After all, only the two sectors, Loire and Rhone, have the lowest positive rates, and there is no noticeable difference between age groups. In Loire, the positive rate is highest at 30/39 years, and in Rhone it is 70/79 years.

Reflux continues throughout the hospital

If this epidemic rebound affects hospital overload, it will only be visible from the next few days due to the traditionally observed two-week delay between infection and hospitalization.

For the time being, the number of patients hospitalized for conventional care continues to decline. If the decline at the national level in the past week was small (less than 2%), it is a bit straightforward in some departments, except for Jura, who has seen a 10% increase in inpatient numbers. Haute-Loire where two additional patients are being treated.

Conversely, Rhone’s hospitals have 12% fewer patients, and this division also comes from the “Top 10” divisions with the highest number of Covid + patients in traditional hospitalizations. This decrease is 10% for Loire and 7% for Ein.

In critical care, the general trend is also on the decline. With local exceptions, since Haute-Loire recorded a 75% increase. However, at first glance, the number of patients in the intensive care unit has increased from four to seven, which has leveled off for Jura, who has three Covid-19 patients, and Ein, who has seven.

Reflux is most pronounced (-31%) in Rhone’s Eighth Division, which cares for the most Covid + patients in critical care. In Loire, the number of patients is 10% less.

At the Auvergne-Rhone-Alps level, tensions in the intensive care unit continued to decline, falling below 30% in the middle of last week. Bourgogne-Francheconte crossed this threshold on weekends.

Decreased mortality

If the cause-effect relationship, hospital deaths are still recorded (41 people were heard per week in 5 departments), the numbers have slowed slightly in the last two weeks. The Rhone River, the fourth bereaved family since the start of the pandemic, alone has a total of 18 people. The Loire River has 12 dead, Ein 5, Jura 4, and Haute-Loire 2.

Vaccination: It caps

Vaccination against Covid-19 is a kind of cap if the government opens the possibility for people over the age of 80 and people with severe immunodeficiency to receive a second boost more than 3 months after the last boost. It seems to have reached. The vaccination pass has been suspended and anyone is free to go to the theaters and restaurants, regardless of whether they are vaccinated or not, but it’s not too surprising.

In the last two weeks, the proportion of people with a double vaccination schedule for all age groups has not increased any further or simply by 0.1% (Ein, Rhone, Haute-Loire). Initiation of vaccination of children is certainly a failure. Note that in the adolescent (12/17 year old) segment, Ain, who has always been behind his neighbor since the start of the campaign, has the highest immunization rate of 82%.

For booster-effect schemes, in the same period, this is still underway, but fairly small (+ 0.2% for Haute-Loire, + 0.3% for Ein, Jura, Loire, + 0-4% for Rhone).