BFMTV SURVEY-President: Macron remains in the lead, but retreats, Le Pen and Melenchon make progress

A new poll 2022 conducted by the Elabe Institute reflects the intention to vote in the first round of the presidential election. Presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron maintains his lead despite a significant setback. Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Melenchon continue to make progress, while Eric Zemmour and Valerie Pécrès retreat.

Twenty days before the first round of the presidential election, Emmanuel Macron remains at the top of the voting intent.

According to a new Opinion 2022 poll conducted by the Elabe Institute and released Tuesday, the presidential candidate has loosened the screw slightly. Emmanuel Macron has fallen for the second straight week after soaring two weeks ago (8.5%). He currently holds 27.5% of the votes, down 3.5 points from last week’s vote, and has lost the support of most voters, including 2017 voters (-5%).

Le Pen and Merenchon on the rise

Conversely, the candidate for the National Rally Marine Le Pen, who remains second in the first round of voting intentions, has made progress for the second straight week. With + 2% in a week, she currently has 20% of the votes. 65% of those who voted for her in 2017 will vote for her again. This corresponds to a 3% increase in one week.

Elabe Opinion 2022 polls show intention to vote in the first round of BFMTV
Elabe Opinion 2022 polls show intention to vote in the first round of BFMTV © Elabe

Like the RN candidate, the rebellious Jean-Luc Melenchon continues to make progress. Earn 15% of the votes and earn points in a week. He also holds his election base: 57% of his 2017 voters voted for him again, rising 3 points in a week.

Unscrew Pécrès and Zemur

Both won 10% of their willingness to vote in the first round, with Valérie Pécrès and Eric Zemmour continuing to decline. Candidate Reconquista lost 1.5 points in a week, compared to 0.5 for Candidate Reconquista. The latter also lost the support of Marine Le Pen voters in 2017 (-3 points in a week).

Ecologist Yannick Jadot and communist Fabien Roussel are relatively stable. The first score is 4.5% (-0.5) and the second credit is 3.5%, the same score as last week.

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan and Jean Lassalle are both 3%, the first point is 1.5 points and the second point is 1 point ahead.

Socialist Anne Hidalgo, like Philip Puton, remains at 1.5%, while Philip Puton has scored 1.5 points. Finally, Nathalie Arthaud is stable at 0.5%.

Elabe Opinion 2022 poll says BFMTV's intention to vote in the second round
Elabe Opinion 2022 poll says BFMTV’s intention to vote in the second round © Elabe

The gap between Le Pen and Macron narrows in the second round

In the second round, the gap between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen narrowed slightly. The presidential candidate wins 56% of the votes and is reduced by 3.5 points. If Macron Le Pen’s duel occurs, the president-elect will benefit from the votes of the majority of voters, Janic Jadot (62%) and Valerie Pécrès (44%).

According to the Elabe Opinion 2022 poll, BFMTV's first and second round voting reports
According to the Elabe Opinion 2022 poll, BFMTV votes were carried over to the first and second rounds © Elabe

Voters in the first round of Eric Zemmour vote for two-thirds (69%) of Marine Le Pen and nearly one-third (29%) of Valérie Pécrès. Finally, 45% of voters in Jean-Luc Melenchon will abstain.

A sample of 1551 representatives of mainland France residents over the age of 18, including 1450 on the voter list.

Asked questions on the internet on March 20th and 21st, 2022. The representativeness of the sample was confirmed according to the allocation method applied to the gender, age, social expert category, residential area, and agglomeration category.

For voting intent questions, only those who are on the electoral list and plan to vote will be considered. For opinion questions, the entire sample is considered. Tolerance of 1.1 to 3.1 percentage points.