Revised March 19, 2022 at 7:57 pm, March 19, 2022 at 10:20 pm
Nothing in the presidential election goes according to plan. From the ballot, I promised a bright future for Elysian, just a stone’s throw away. Edouard Balladur in 1995, Lionel Jospin in 2002, Dominique Strauss-Kahn in 2012 and Alain Juppé in 2017 prove this. But in 2022, this constructive cliché of our political life could be denied. What if there was no surprise in this election? This seems to have been confirmed by our Ifop poll three weeks before the first round. The final conflict between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, except for big surprises and big events that could radically change the election situation with money time. Almost systematically announced for over two years and actually done.
At the beginning of the first round, Emmanuel Macron is still there. And more than ever, it accounts for 29.5% of voting intentions. This is almost 5 points higher than before Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine on February 24th. He measures 18.5% and enjoys a comfortable lead, 11 points ahead of Marine LePen. Such a gap between the first and second presidents has never been observed since the 1988 presidential election. Meanwhile, François Mitterrand, also retiring president, was close to 30%. But in the latter case, he was out of two years of cohabitation.
In a strong position, Macron can rely on a homogenized election base. If a woman votes much more aggressively than a man (35% vs. 25%), he attracts both over 35 (30%) and over 65 (34%). Geographically, the scores are very close (29%, 31% and 27%, respectively) for residents of the Paris region, large rural towns and local governments.
His strategic position is paying off, as highlighted by the announcement of his program on Thursday. He leads almost every powerful right-wing segment. Therefore, among people over the age of 65, Emmanuel Macron outperforms Republican (LR) candidate Valerie Pécrès by 16 points. 22 senior managers. And 23 of the private sector employees who voted for Nicolas Sarkozy on a large scale in 2007. Still, in 2017, 21% of right-wing supporters (compared to 57% of Pecres) and 27% of Francois Fillon voters gathered. Only attracts 38%.
Read also – President: What Macron has changed in his program compared to 2017
Marine Le Pen maintains a solid foundation
Marine Le Pen has been declining to vote since last summer and has entered the operation of its far-right rival Eric Zemmour, but maintains a solid foundation thanks to the support of a particularly popular category. Masu (28%). But she has slightly expanded the traditional foundations of her party, even before the head of state among her business leaders (25% compared to 24% for Macron).
Of all the candidates who have expressed sympathy for the Vladimir Putin administration in recent years, the ones who have suffered the least from the war unleashed by Vladimir Putin are their foundations, few qualifications and farther from politics ( Unemployed) 32% voted for her, 31% CAP and BEP holders), seems not to care about her past position. According to our polls, for 64% of respondents trying to vote for her, the war does not affect their vote (compared to 50% of those trying to put the Macron ballot in the ballot box). do). Candidates for the National Union are widening the gap with Eric Zemmour, who was blamed for the battle in Ukraine. Le Pen’s challenge remains the mobilization of his voters. “If the same thing happens in the 2021 region, the poll is wrong and it won’t be in the second round,” analyzes Frederick Davi, director of the French Public Opinion Institute. The more you exceed 35% abstention, the higher the risk. The second round between Macron and Le Pen is 58% compared to 42%, with the latter winning most of the time.
Read also – President: How Melenchon uses social movements to reach the second round
Jean-Luc Melenchon looks like a third man
The third man is more and more similar to Jean-Luc Melenchon. La France insoumise (LFI) candidates are currently capped at Valérie Pécresse (11%) and Éric Zemmour (12%) with 13% of their willingness to vote. It was about the same time five years ago. But the ballot was much later. It works well among under 35 years old (23%), working class (19%) and public sector employees (20%). “His voters are similar to 2017 voters, but at a lower level,” said Frédéric Dabi. In fact, five years ago, his voters only said he wanted to vote for him at 55%, 12% preferred Communist Fabien Roussel and 11% preferred ecologist Yannick Jadot. .. Therefore, the next three-week task for Melenchon is to bring back the left-wing voters seduced by these rivals by breaking the “useful voting” debate.
For Jean-Luc Melenchon, his followers will find it difficult to lie polls predictions. However, you need to be careful. Macron’s desire to dodge the campaign and reject the debate, and more certainly the purchasing power issue, always constitutes so many traps at this end of the campaign. There are only three weeks left for competitors to abuse these subjects to prove that the predictions are wrong.