How the crisis between Ukraine and Russia disrupts Emmanuel Macron’s presidential plan

Emmanuel Macron has found a dream window of opportunity to enter the arena. According to people around him, the President of the Republic has guaranteed that Russia will choose a peaceful voice against its Ukrainian neighbors, with the partial lifting of health restrictions on February 16 and the return from Moscow last week. During that time he was supposed to declare his candidacy.

However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Thursday, February 24, confused the head of state’s calendar. Emmanuel Macron, who was diplomatically weakened by the decision not to keep Vladimir Putin’s words, when Elysee sources confirmed that he would hold the first major campaign rally in Marseille on March 5. Seems to be politically weakened in the field.

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Within 50 days of the first round, hit future candidates.On the public side, Emmanuel Macron, who is currently the chairman, Union Council Europe, despite all, can take advantage of the war to direct campaigns to areas he knows better than other candidates. It is the creation of European defense that he has been advocating since 2016.

The official date of his candidacy declaration has not yet been announced, but February 16 was first circulated. Then it was the end of February, especially on Friday, February 25, the day before the visit to Emmanuel Macron’s Agricultural Show.

Calendar changes that don’t worry about his relatives. “Everything is ready for the campaign, and we haven’t put a proposal in the air that will allow our opponents to score points and move on.“, Franceinfo guarantees a ministerial adviser.

“We have been working on the Emmanuel Macron campaign since the start of the school year in September. The program is well organized and dates are not really the subject.”

Stanislas Guerini, General Representative of La Republique en Marche

on franceinfo

Therefore, the President of the Republic waits for the last moment and declares himself. Emmanuel Macron will race for reelection in the week of February 28, just before March 4, which is the deadline for submitting 500 sponsorships to the Constitutional Council.

Opposition has recently not escaped Emmanuel Macron if the issue of Russian offensive seems to have raised national unity. One of the most compelling candidates is Jean-Luc Melenchon. At a press conference, the disobedient French Prime Minister accused him. “Emmanuel Macron’s tragic record in this episode”While judging Russia “Responsible person” Of the current crisis. “Is he a Putin decoy? He wondered. That’s a big mess. “ His aides evoke him, “Logical repulsion because Emmanuel Macron exposed himself too much.”..

The head of state did not hesitate to perform himself on his Instagram account from the Elysee Palace during telephone negotiations with Vladimir Putin.

On Valérie Pécrès’s side, we are not very kind to the President-elect.Even if the candidate LR doesn’t want it “I blame the president for trying to talk to Vladimir Putin.”She thinks of the French Inter as follows. “This dialogue was too late and lonely.”..Socialist Anne Hidalgo’s aides have been blamed by several lawmakers “Emmanuel Macron has chosen to take office as President of the EU, which risks skipping during the elections in France.”..

Finally, on the far right, Eric Zemmour was keen on the initiative of his future opponents in the Elysee race. “The problem is that Emmanuel Macron is unreliable and not respected by Vladimir Putin.”, Reconquista candidate said! At the French Inter. For Marine Le Pen invited to RTL “Emmanuel Macron wants to use this diplomatic sequence to participate in the campaign.”..

Emmanuel Macron also bears the actual election risk by being at the forefront of the Ukrainian file. However, according to political scientist Bruno Courtless, his impact on future campaigns was very limited. “Since the start of this campaign, France’s foreign security issues have become torrent. Therefore, this war in central Europe is due to Emmanuel Macron being the head of state and chair of the board. De facto benefits. European Union “Cevipof researchers explain.

“Emmanuel Macron is one step ahead of the other candidates because he is familiar with European issues. The fact that he is playing at home on the ground he is familiar with is for his future campaign. That’s pretty good. “

Bruno Courtless, political scientist

on franceinfo

In Emmanuel Macron’s camp, we make a positive decisionWilling to maintain peace in Europe and try to discourage Vladimir Putin from attacking Ukraine.. “Marine Le Pen, Eric Zemmour and Jean-Luc Melenchon are Putin supporters and cannot reassure public opinion. France is not very pro-Russian. RefereeAnd ministerial adviser.. As for Valérie Pécrès, she can’t hear about her subject and it would be difficult for her to be in a position to distinguish herself.

However, the interventionism of the retiring president in this conflict can also constitute a weakness. Results can be complicated if Emmanuel Macron, chair of the Council of the European Union, fails to unite a majority of EU member states with Russia in the coming days. “If he manages to lead a good adjustment of the European cockpit, it will pass. On the other hand, if it is an image of the powerlessness of Europe that appears, there is a lot of criticism.”Analyze Bruno Courtless.

The president is also at risk of appearing as a candidate on the ground, far from the everyday concerns of the French. “If Emmanuel Macron only campaigns internationally, the latter could oppose him.”Add and emphasize political scientists “His triple agenda as Head of State, President of the European Commission and candidate will not be easy to maintain during the campaign.”..