In Ukraine, Russia’s strategy is reminiscent of that adopted in Georgia

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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a strong reminder of what happened in Georgia in 2008. At that time, Moscow equipped a large army on the separatist territory and borders of South Osetia, driving Georgia to attack. However, Russia’s expansionist policies in these regions are showing their limits.

With our local correspondent, Regis Gente

Parallel processing gets in the way because the scenario is repeated in detail. The Ukrainian invasion reflects what happened in 2008 in the isolated areas of South Osetia and Abkhazia. Georgia has accused Russia of manipulating and destabilizing these territories from the former Soviet Union. At that time, Vladimir Putin was still coordinating Russia’s actions as head of government.

During the “Caucasus-2008” military exercise, troops gathered at the Russian border. The Georgian reaction to the provocations made by the separatists in South Ossetia provided an excuse for Russia to fight back. The conflict left 600 to 800 dead (half of them civilians) and South Osetia. de facto It has been independent since 1992 and was recognized in Moscow at the end of the conflict.

It was Dmitry Medvedev, then President of the Russian Federation, who signed the document and further strengthened South Ossetia’s position as a Russian satellite.

This is probably one of the scenarios taking place in Donbus today. Russian troops have occupied all of the separatist territories of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, which have been occupied by Russian troops for about 40% since 2015, and beyond them their Soviet-era administrative boundaries are in full swing. Promises a dispute. The bombing in Ukraine on Thursday, February 24, was reminiscent of Russia’s strategy at the time, with bombings on Georgia’s military infrastructure, airports, ports and more.

However, the Ukrainian attack could go further than Georgia. Nothing was gained from the Minsk Agreement, or in some final position from Russia with respect to NATO’s non-expansion, Russian troops occupy all of the predominantly Russian-speaking southeastern part of Ukraine. I was able to reduce it to two. In this regard, this is just speculation.

Intention to annoy neighboring countries

But Russia’s strategy is dangerous. It also proves Moscow’s weaknesses in the former Soviet universe. It offers nothing attractive to most neighboring countries. For the people of Georgia, Ukraine, Moldova, Armenia and even Kazakhstan, Moscow is nothing more than force and coercion, increasing resistance to Russian influence. “” We know what geography is, we don’t move our country, but Russians, the only thing they bring to us is tanks “Thus blamed the Georgians.

Similarly, in Kazakhstan, anti-Russian sentiment is not very strong, but it has a very hostile slogan against Russia. Riot in January 2022.. Russia alienated some of its population by forcing the country to join the Eurasian Union in order to undermine the opinions and purses of the Kazakhs, and it no longer supports its authoritarian method. In the case of Ukraine, Russia seems to want to continue Georgia’s strategy at the risk of losing all the trust of the surrounding countries.

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