Pool news via reuters
Conflict-War in Ukraine makes the subject terribly talkative. France’s preparations for so-called “high-intensity” conflicts, or more simply, more severe and larger conflicts, were the subject of a parliamentary report released on 22 February. Spoilers: France is not ready.
With “continuous concerns to avoid contributing to a harmful arms race,” its reporters, LR Deputy Genre Issier Riot and LREM Deputy Patricia Mirallès, analyze the potential for massive conflict. .. “Although it’s sparse, this probability is high,” they emphasize after 57 auditions and 6 months of work.
“What is happening in Ukraine strengthens our judgment,” said Patricia Mirales (LREM) during the publication of the report at the Commission. High intensity is a credible hypothesis, and the best way to avoid war is to prepare for it, so we need to prepare for it. “
“Risk of conflict between great powers”
Speaking of “high strength”, there is no need for “total war” or World War III. According to agents, “slippage, misassessment, or hidden practices” can lead to major military conflicts. Even if nuclear deterrence and alliances theoretically protect France from escalation. Theoretically.
“Since the War in Donbas and the Nagorno-Karabakh War, Western nations have prepared for more severe conflicts after decades of asymmetrical fighting. In this context, the notion of high intensity has been revived in the discourse of military authorities. I did, “the reporter wrote.
The key commitment assumptions provide, for example, a six-month period to prepare for this type of dispute. “There aren’t six months,” warns Jean-Louis Thiériot.
“In 2021, the military ministry raised the risk of conflict between the great powers for the first time since the end of the Cold War,” we can read. Conflicts that can take many forms.
Should France, which has focused on peacekeeping and the war on terror for 30 years, change the direction of its military strategy? Today, France “continues to be a reliable military force. We are reassured. The sophistication of our sample military model has worked well so far.”
However, according to agents, “technical catch-ups in certain countries” such as China, India, Brazil, Russia and Turkey are “military while other forces are betting on more naive abilities to win the masses. It led to the revival of competition. ..
“I’m facing a swarm of thousands of dollars, so is it wise to use a missile that costs between 1 and 2 million euros per shot?” Listen to the report. To balance, he recommends considerable financial effort without confusing our current military model.
“Ammunition: We’ll be naked in a week”
Efforts that can focus on specific aspects. France is facing, for example, ammunition inventory issues, according to LR Deputy Officer, who is also responsible for the “defense” part of Valérie Pécrès’ program.
“A week after we were naked, whether simple or complex, he said in an interview with the Press Journalists Association (AJD) last week to get the stock back. There is a shortage of 6 to 7 billion euros. “
Another point highlighted by the reporter: lack of training of soldiers, all troops combined. “For the Army, we’re 64% compared to the best training to enable our army to reach the top level,” regrets Jean-Lewis Sierriot. increase.
“The Air Force runs out of planes in 10 days.”
As for the Air Force, while happy with Rafale’s recent exports and sales, reporters still emphasize that it puts France in a “tensioned” position.
According to Bruno Megret, former Strategic Air Forces (FAS) commander, it is quoted in the report.Editor’s Note: Means loss of pilots, death of war wounded, missing at sea, destruction of aircraft, depletion of inventory and resources) Close to that of the Falkland Islands in 1982 (8%), the Air Force will run out of planes in 10 days and probably missiles in 2 days. “
The integration, among other things, recommends increasing the number of fighters and “first-class” frigates and developing robotization in the Army. The MEP also recommends setting up a parliamentary fact-finding team on influential or cognitive warfare.
The power of war
More than usual, money is a by-product of the war that parliamentarians remind us of on this issue. The report advises that regardless of the new government, it will respect the increase (step) in the annual budget of at least € 3 billion as stipulated by the Military Programming Act (LPM) until 2025.
To be on the safe side, LPM 2019-2025 has invested € 295 billion over seven years. “The hardest part is in front of us. With a budget of € 50 billion in 2025, this represents an effort of up to 2.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) with wet fingers,” Jean- Louis Thiériot shows.
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