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Ukraine-“Russia invades Ukraine and bombs some towns.” The world woke up to horrifying news on Thursday, February 24th. The crisis between Russia and Ukraine has undergone the most dramatic changes. War is now at the doorstep of Europe. What does this mean? How far can Vladimir Putin go? Are we at war? It’s hard to worry or wonder what really involves initiating this aggression.
On Twitter, the terms “World War III,” “World War III,” or “World War III” were also the most tweeted Thursday in France and around the world. Not without humor, but many Internet users who have already imagined that they would have to force the army to join the front lines, such as 14-18 and 39-45. If their reaction is smiling, the problem is still very real. Are we at the dawn of World War III?
Carol Grimaud Potter, a professor of Russian geopolitics at the University of Montpellier and the Institute for Foreign Affairs of Paris, HuffPost..
HuffPost: Can you imagine what happened last night and we’re heading for World War II?
PMC: No, we are not heading for World War III. But the concern is legitimate and we understand that we can ask ourselves questions. There is a reason to be very worried.
HuffPost: What do you think you’re going to escape from this catastrophic scenario?
PMC: Just because Ukraine is not part of NATO. Therefore, the “one for all, one for all” rule does not apply here. Unfortunately, it’s sad for her, and fortunately for us.
Joe Biden has announced that he will not send troops to Ukraine and that NATO allies will not intervene. On the other hand, although there is military aid in terms of equipment, there is no official foreign army in Ukraine. Militia, private military companies, or mercenaries may exist informally, as there may have already been a dispute in Donbus. But there is no official army.
HuffPost: Can Vladimir Putin go ahead of Ukraine? Why does he focus on this neighbor here? Can it attack other countries in the former Soviet block?
PMC: It is important to understand here that we are witnessing an explosion of tension between Russia and the West that has existed for many years. Since the 2000s, since the Kremlin condemned NATO’s eastern expansion, Russia has called on NATO to reorganize its European security architecture. These requests remained dead letters and were asked to join NATO and the EU, except that Ukraine headed west. The goal of Moscow today is to replace the Ukrainian government with an eastern government of pro-Russia.
Whether Putin can attack other countries in the former Soviet block is not completely ruled out. This scenario may be reproducible at other borders. I am especially thinking about Poland and the Baltic states. Except that these are NATO member states and without a response from NATO there would be no Russian military pressure on these borders. In any case, this is just Ukraine.
HuffPost: What are the global fears of consequences at this point?
PMC: The Cold War is not unlikely. Poland and the Baltic states have military infrastructure, so by taking Ukraine, Moscow will want to balance its power. Russia will build a military base in Belarus and equipment that can be deployed in Belarus’ soil, including nuclear weapons. This should be completed in a few months.You can go back to
As we knew, the Cold War with pressure and constant threat?
In addition, Russia will be diplomatically and economically isolated. Block logic seems to have been introduced, especially in tandems in China and Russia. Finally, the occupation of Ukraine will reduce the population. To Poland, which already welcomes many Ukrainians, to France, to other EU countries, to Canada, which has a large Ukrainian diaspora, and to facilitate their arrival on American territory. Towards the United States, which should be.
HuffPost: Can France be militarily involved in this conflict?
PMC: So far, Macron has only promised sanctions. I have not seen the decision of the French army to intervene. Are there any European countries within the framework of national participation that are ready to do this independently of NATO and the EU? Do not know. That’s possible, but I don’t think one country wants to stand out from other European countries. It will obscure the image of unity that the EU wants to give. For the time being, Ukrainian President Zelensky does not want foreign militants to intervene in his territory.
Still, I find it difficult to see a country that wants to take the risk of facing Russia. Especially after Putin’s speech, which threatens people who want to stop Putin with “unknown results”. We are clearly thinking about nuclear weapons. So we have to keep our heads calm and wait for the head of state’s decision.
HuffPost: So, in the meantime, is Ukraine left to its fate?
PMC: For now, the Ukrainian army has to confront only the Russian army, but unfortunately it is.
See also HuffPost: In Ukraine, tanks enter Donetsk after Putin’s remarks