By making this decision, Vladimir Putin will impose a kind of ultimatum on European suppliers for future contracts.
Vladimir Putin announced on Wednesday that Russia would no longer accept dollar or euro payments for gas supply to the EU, giving Russian authorities a week to build a new ruble trading system.
The announcement collapsed on February 24 and immediately affected the rising Russian currency against the euro and the dollar, while Russian troops entered Ukraine.
Is this a new challenge for Europeans and their gas suppliers? If they reject these new conditions, they no longer have Russian gas. If they accept it, they endorse the ruble course and cancel some of the effects of the three-week sanctions.
Will you accelerate the embargo in Europe?
“It’s still a bit vague, but it’s more about communication than anything else. I’ll explain to Kpler energy expert BFM Business Alexandre Andlauer. The current contract is unaffected and can’t be changed that way, This announcement will be sold further on the part of the Russians. “
This could accelerate Europe’s choice to no longer source from Russia,
“Western nations could attack Russia with an oil embargo that plunges Russia’s economy,” Andri Jermac, chief aide to President Volodymyr Zelensky, warned Telegram. “This is now an important economic battle, and the West must collectively win it.”
The possibility of a European embargo would pose a “real problem” for Diesel, a large consumer in Europe, but nevertheless warned France’s energy conversion minister on Wednesday.
“Europe and France are facing the need for this diesel, which will increase as decisions are made in the coming days or weeks,” said Barbara Pompiri, the replacement chairman of the European Union. There is a risk that it will be important. “
“It’s going to be very complicated,” says Alexander Andrewer.
No dead end
For Professor Antoine Levy of the MIT Faculty of Economics, “This rule has a lot of wrong feelings, as if it were a blow of Putin’s genius that stalled Europeans. It’s totally nonsense,” he said. Told. On Twitter.
“Currently, a European importer who wants to buy Russian gas is sending his dollars to Gazprom, which is sending him gas. Gazprom has to pay his wages and expenses in rubles. , Selling his dollars to the ruble to the Russian central bank, “he explains.
“At the end of the process, Europeans have less dollars and gas. The Russian central bank has more dollar reserves. Gasprom has less gas and more rubles. New By convention, Europeans spend dollars to buy rubles from Russians (eg banks), and rubles to buy gas from gas proms. “
“Russian banks have to sell dollars to the central bank for the ruble (required from March). The result is exactly the same. The European Union has less dollars and more gas, gasproms have less gas. Ruble-rich, Russian central banks are dollar-rich. In a pinch, it’s a way for Putin to ensure that Russian companies like Gazprom aren’t fooled by keeping dollars for themselves. ” Emphasize Antoine Levi Those who believe that it is a far more anti-oligarch rule than an anti-European rule.
“It only accelerates diversification away from Russia’s energy.”
“We’re trying to get the Western countries sanctioned by the Russian central bank to deal with it, but that only complicates transactions with Russia for energy supply,” said Putin, Bluebay Asset Analyst Timothy Ash. rice field. “He told AFP.
Keep in mind that Moscow has been advocating economic de-dollarization for years to reduce its vulnerability to sanctions. In March 2019, Russian public gas giant Gazprom announced that it was the first to sell ruble gas to European companies.
Is Domination of the Dollar Dangered? This is “far from the truth,” said Neil Shearing, chief economist in capital economics, in a memo. “It could accelerate the development of smaller trade zones that use alternative currencies, but these do not match the size and reach of the dollar.”