Jean-Luc Melenchon’s plan to win a “useful vote” on the left

In december he “Mousehole” Before imagining, to reach the final of the presidential election in mid-January “Election turtle, smart”.. “It doesn’t make sense to run. You have to start on time.”, He prophesied in front of his family three months before the ballot and took up the lessons of La Fontaine’s famous parable. What does the animal metaphor mean: three weeks before the first round, Jean-Luc Melenchon has benefited from a favorable poll for a month and a half. The French candidate for disobedience, who is organizing the “March of the Sixth Republic” in Paris on Sunday, March 20, is now in the second round of his third and (probably) last presidential adventure. I firmly believe in my qualifications.

The ambition was already there in 2017 when he failed at the gate of the second round. “About 600,000 votes”After a very good dynamic in the last few weeks of the campaign, he complained about Bouches-du-Rhone’s adjutant. “Does the scenario repeat? At that pointI remember the political scientist Remi Lefebvre, He broke into public opinion thanks to the debate on television. He then took off in two ways: by sucking up socialist votes and by looking for voters away from politics. Five years later, Insoumis is aiming for the same goal.

However, the situation is a little different. First, there will be no TV debate among the candidates until April 10. Then, from the Communists to the Social Democrats, the Left was further subdivided in 2022. If there was only one socialist and two leftmost representatives in front of him in 2017, Jean-Luc Melenchon should be at least five apart this time. A competitor to win his bet. He must deal with the existence of Communist Fabien Roussel. “Of the 100 voters in Jean-Luc Melenchon in 2017, 10% voted for Fabien Roussel, which cannot be ignored.”Brice Teinturier, Deputy CEO of the Ipsos Institute, explained at franceinfo on Saturday, March 12th.

However, the will to win remains intact, ubiquitous, and ferocious. The debate is constantly being developed by all rebels, from executives to activists. The Melenchon newsletter is the only one that can send the left to the second round. Opinions shared across Melenchonist circles: “Today, it’s clear that the useful vote on the left is Melenchon’s vote.”Thus launched Ségolène Royale in February. “We don’t like that expression because it means there are useless votes.”Corrects Alexis Corbière, LFI Deputy Officer of Seine-Saint-Denis. “We like effective voting.”

Let them call it“Usable” Also“effective”The leaders of La France insoumise are pleased to discuss the benefits of the vote of Melenchon, who will turn left until April 24th. “I participated in the second round of storytelling, but I didn’t win.”Breathe, MP Clementine Autun.

“We had to awaken the people on the left, telling us that the second round between Macron and Melenchon wasn’t the same atmosphere in the country.”

Clementine Autain, MP LFI

on franceinfo

Neck and neck become the third man in polls, Jean-Luc Melenchon just looks up. Since the end of February, polls have regularly raised the hypothesis of a duel with Emmanuel Macron. Even if this possible conflict is systematically directed to the interests of the next president, the prospect of not storing posters or flags in the closet on the night of April 10 pleases the movement’s executives. These are currently only targeted to Emmanuel Macron and the far right of their intervention. “We are focusing on that.”Claims Aurellie Troube, Chairman of the Popular Union Parliament, which brought together 300 representatives of civil society invested behind the Jean-Luc Melenchon program.

Therefore, during the war in Ukraine, even if the camp of Janic Jadot and Anne Hidalgo constantly pointed out Jean-Luc Melenchon’s current and past statements about Vladimir Putin, the invasion with the rest of the left. Time will be over. Confuse the campaign. For now, “Neither he nor Marine Le Pen, unlike Eric Zemmour, suffers from the way Vladimir Putin is seen in public opinion.”Observe Jean-Daniel Levy, Deputy Director of the Harris Interactive Institute.

“In 2017, there was a lot of talk about the relationship between Jean-Luc Melenchon and Venezuela, but it didn’t have a big impact on his judgment.”

Jean-Daniel Lévy of Harris Interactive Institute

on franceinfo

Despite the doubling of criticism, Jean-Luc Melenchon continues to benefit from the excellent dynamics of polls. “The voters on the left believe that international politics is not an essential criterion for judgment, but that social issues are more important.”Analyzes Remi Lefebvre, the author of Should I despair on the left? (Text version). Insoumis understands this very well. At public conferences, in front of the camera, or on social networks, they argue opposition between Jean-Luc Melenchon and Emmanuel Macron on pension reform, which is an outstanding social subject.

But Tribune and his supporters aren’t just talking to voters seduced by Fabien Roussel, Janic Jadot, or Anne Hidalgo. To pass the first round “Jean-Luc Melenchon absolutely needs abstainers.”Emphasizes the author of, Manuel Cervera-Marzal. French sociology of disobedience (La Découverte edition). He received a class vote in 2017, so they are mainly in the lower classes. ” Five years ago, 24% of workers and 31% of the unemployed voted for him against 19% of the population.

Here Jean-Luc Melenchon faces a big problem. All polls predict a strong demobilization of the presidential election. “We are heading for an abstention record.”, Warns pollster Jean-Daniel Lévy. gold, “The higher the abstention, the more disadvantageous he will be.”, ManuelCervera-Marzal is expected. His subordinate France knows this. “Abstention is the worst thing that can happen to us. The more we vote, the stronger we are.”The candidate said at the start of his campaign.

Therefore, he has three weeks left to mobilize one-third of voters who have lost interest in ballots, according to a recent study by Opinion Way. “Today, polls have established participation in about 66% of registered voters. We have 10 participation points.”, Calculate the campaign manager for Jean-Luc Melenchon in Manuel Bonpearl. Behind him, the LFI machine traverses France endlessly, increasing the number of encounters in the field. 400 door-to-door sales are billed each week, “25 to 30 meetings are held nationwide, excluding candidates.”Alexis Corbières is proud.

To feed the radical machines, La France insoumise is betting this year on Popular Action, a digital mobilization management tool created in April 2021. The same message is repeated for each tow and each public meeting. “Let people vote!” On Tuesday night, he begged the movement spokesman David Gillow to hundreds of people packed into a room in Malakov, a communist-run border town near Paris.

Is the April 10 ballot box sufficient for this mobilization? “The idea that 19% and 20% of candidates can qualify in the second round is now credible.”, I want to believe in Manuel Bonpearl. It calculates: “Currently, it’s 12% and 13% in the vote. If you get 3 points in the rest of the left and 3 points on the side of the person who didn’t plan to vote, it will start to take shape.”

but, “Even if the qualification criteria for the second round are now lower than 2017 (21.3%), wouldn’t Jean-Luc Melenchon’s current rise have the effect of a counter-vote that would help the far right? Ask political scientist Remi Lefebvre.

If you look closely, recent polls have widened the gap on the far right. Marine Le Pen is not weakened if Eric Zemmour records a decline in voting intent. This mathematically complicates the work of Jean-Luc Melenchon. “Feel good” This presidential election was held last Sunday by him JDD.. Her strength is certain and she is sure to overtake all the rabbits as soon as spring comes, “Wise turtle” Did she start the race early enough to beat them to the post?