Russia’s attack on Ukraine surprised most Westerners, but this “strategic surprise” was particularly strong among candidates for the 2022 presidential election, who made vague pro-Russian remarks in the past. ), Marine Le Pen (National Rally) and Éric Zemmour (Reconquest!).
Everyone attributed the worsening situation to far more “American propaganda” than Vladimir Putin’s actions. The shock of reality is only getting more intense, and for some analysts, the conflict marks a turning point more locally in the French presidential election as well as in modern European history, and teams at uncertain times. Instead of sending Emmanuel Macron. However, this shock can be very measurable for pro-Russian candidates.
The dynamics of pro-Russian candidates are based on factors other than international affairs. Unlike the countries of Eastern Europe where the Russian threat looks very specific, France remains protected by its geographical conditions. The defeat of Germany in 1945 and the currently observed changes in German policy have eliminated the risk of invasion of its territory – exporting war materials to Ukraine, financing the purchase of weapons by the European Union, so far. An initiative unthinkable in German pacifism – do not question this basic reality.
From there, Russian questions are essentially rhetorical. For supporters of Jean-Luc Melenchon, the main subject of the campaign is to position themselves for the maintenance and expansion of the spending nation. For the people of Zemur and Rupen, separated by sociological factors (the former being young, predominantly bourgeois, and the latter belonging to the working class), the fundamental problem is the African and Muslim immigrants and multiculturalism ” “Risk”.
Therefore, for these parties, the candidate’s speech can be adapted to the “new normality” of war in the land of Europe and only slightly develops their proposal.
As their opening statement shows, pro-Russian candidates immediately acknowledged their first mistake (“Putin was attacked”), and that Russian leaders would start a war by US policy. It implies that it was forced.
# Ukraine : “Putin is an invader and he is the only culprit, but he is not the only one responsible.” @ZemmourEric of #RTLPresidential When @VenturaAlba.. “Responsibility is NATO, which continues to grow.” pic.twitter.com/2v7d6UCKTP
— RTL France (@RTLFrance) February 28, 2022
Along with Marxism and the legacy of the “Cold War”, Jean-Luc Melenchon, the basic axis of thought remains the old distrust of “American imperialism.” At Marine Le Pen, which is more adaptable at the ideological level, important considerations such as Russia’s funding for the 2017 campaign could help support Moscow. Eric Zemmour is an intellectually more robust nationalist fortress whose hostility towards the “Anglo-Saxons” resists Islam (Russia’s second largest religion) and longs to maintain its interests. Is as powerful as the concept of fantasy Russia.
But again, the example of Germany, where the Federal Republic of Germany was founded in 1949 and changed its foreign policy, proves that the country’s diplomacy is not immutable, but how much it changes depending on the nature of the government.Beyond the metaphor abused by extremes, what is Bismarck’s relationship with his German unification policy? “By iron and blood”And Mrs. Merkel’s peaceful European diplomacy?
French political culture of pro-Russian from the 19th centuryWhen century
Finally, the pro-Russian orientation of these candidates is based on a very solid foundation in French political culture.
[ItisworthrememberingthatFrancearevolutionarycountrywherethePCFwonone-thirdofthevotesin1945hasbuiltastrongrelationshipwithcommunistRussiaAspartofthatthe19th[1945年にPCFが投票の3分の1を獲得した革命国であるフランスは、共産主義のロシアと強い関係を築いてきたことを覚えておく価値があります。その一部として、19番目にWhen According to the famous distinction of René Rémond in the century, the Empire of the Emperor, a pillar of the Holy Alliance, already saw a guarantee for the liberal revolution.
The advent of communism in 1917 weakened this conservative enthusiasm, but it did not erase it. The connection between Moscow and Free France was built against Nazi Germany (Normandy-Niemen squadron). The Gaulle era showed the connection of this Franco-Russian alliance with the exit from NATO’s Integrated Command (1966) or the European idea of ”from the Atlantic to the Urals”.
After the end of the Cold War, attention should be paid to the closeness of Russia and France’s position, from the initial support for Serbia in Yugoslavia to the refusal of the war in Iraq (2003).
Localization of French thought?
Since the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis, pro-Russian candidates believe that they only shout out what French diplomacy has formulated in Peto. In their eyes, Putin is undoubtedly disagreeing with American policy, judging Russia humiliated by the expansion of the Atlantic Alliance, or the very existence of Ukraine associated with Russia’s past. It is correct to dispute. Please do not enter NATO.
Others call “Finlandization” a smaller evil. That is, to propose to the countries concerned to choose neutrality in exchange for a form of internal freedom, without direct opposition to Russia. A concept you would have heard in the mouth of the head of state of France, according to a journalist who accompanied him on a plane that took him to Moscow.
These envisioned positions and models are far from those of the Western allies and appear to be unrelated to the reality of the development of Ukraine, a sovereign democracy larger than France with more than 40 million inhabitants. .. Needless to say, candidates, whether pro-Russian or not, must agree with the French opinion, which is primarily concerned with national issues (purchasing power, immigration). This is a phenomenon that reveals a form of localization of French thought.
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