Oil wti: Currented by the war in Ukraine, the WTI barrel now crosses the $ 100 threshold

(BFM Bourse)-A few days after Brent’s barrel, WTI’s barrel also surpassed the iconic and psychological cap of $ 100 for the first time since 2014. Beyond the potential for Russia’s supply turmoil, market operators were worried about sanctions that should target the sector.

A very smart person who can say how the ongoing armed conflict in Ukrainian soil will end. Nevertheless, there is one thing for sure. That is, the Russian economy will probably not escape the very strict Western sanctions for several years. The European Union announced economic retaliation last week, but over the weekend it has significantly strengthened its tone. In particular, while freezing the assets of the Central Bank of Russia abroad, it excluded Russia from the Swift interbank platform.

If these measures are already felt severe in Russia, where the rubles are sunk to historically lows, they will never affect Vladimir Putin’s desire to invade Ukraine. The Kremlin announced on Tuesday through Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu that he would “continue to attack until all objectives were achieved,” that is, Ukraine’s “denazification” and “denazification.” Faced with this observation, the West seems determined to raise its gear in terms of sanctions.

“The issue of direct sanctions on Russia’s oil and gas exports is a timing issue, not a probability,” said Neil Wilson, an analyst at Markets.com. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz warned on Tuesday that “we are definitely” imposing new sanctions on Russia. Across the Atlantic, Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced on Monday a ban on all imports of Russian crude oil-these are very limited in Canada compared to European countries’ desire for crude oil and gas. But the nature of Russia.

Therefore, this outlook will lead to a new surge in prices for major crude oil benchmarks the day after the (already) apparently bullish session. “Real Russians” have underlined Oanda analyst Jeffrey Halley.

At around 4:45 pm, Brent crude oil futures contracts rose 8.1% to $ 105.9, the highest since summer. The North Texas benchmark West Texas Intermediate deal also had a $ 100 threshold (+ 8.9% to $ 104.2) less than two years after it fell into the negative territory for the first time in all history. ) Was clearly exceeded.

Oil prices, which had already soared in the morning in the face of intensifying Russian attacks, rose further after a Russian Defense Ministry spokesman announced early in the afternoon with Russian troops and pro-Russians. On Tuesday, separatist forces from eastern Ukraine crossed the coast of the Sea of ​​Azov. Unknown, this 35,000 km² “small” sea is essential to the Ukrainian economy, with two major ports on its coast, Mariupol and Berdyans’k, especially as a starting point for grain and steel exports. , Strategic.

Oil is also under pressure by the decision of the European oil “super major” to abandon numerous investments in Russian soil. “The business community is building a fortress to isolate Russia from the international community,” said Susannah Streeter, an analyst at Hargreaves Landsdown. She continues that companies around the world are responding to Russia “by freezing transactions with Moscow and abandoning billions of dollars worth of financial investment.”

The Dutch hydrocarbon giant Shell announced on Monday that it will relinquish its shares in several joint projects with Russia’s Russian group Gazprom due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, following the example of a fellow countryman BP withdrawing from Russia. Huge Rosneft. France’s TotalEnergies (especially in Russia through Novatek’s 19.4% stake) haven’t made any progress so far as they haven’t completely withdrawn from the country, but on Tuesday “it” is Russia’s new. Showed that the project will bring more capital’. Danish shipping giant Maersk also today announced the suspension of new orders with Russian ports, excluding food, medical and humanitarian aid.

Sufficient to cause “shipping confusion due to cancellation of cargo reservations from Russia” and “in the short term without Russia turning off the faucet” as a result of rising energy prices, Susanna Streeter Move forward.

Unknown factors remain and are not the most important. Moscow’s reaction to these sanctions. “Concerns over Russia’s retaliation against energy exports have kept oil and gas prices high,” experts said.

The outbreak subsided slightly after the International Energy Agency announced at the end of Tuesday afternoon that it had released 60 million barrels of oil from emergency supplies from its member states. According to the agency, the decision was to “send a unified and powerful message to the global oil market that there is no supply shortage due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”

Quentin Soubranne-© 2022BFMBourse