The war in Ukraine yesterday caused financial markets to fall again. Especially in Europe, we are more afraid of the design of Vladimir Putin, which requires geographical proximity, than anywhere else. By awakening the nuclear threat earlier this week, the Russian president awakened the old devil. The world is afraid that the Kremlin Master will transform into Jack the Ripper, which causes the nuclear apocalypse of Dr. Strangelove of Stanley Kubrick.
The broad European Stocks Europe 600 index fell 2.4% at yesterday’s closing, while other indices such as France’s CAC 40 fell much more, boosted by high-end equities. In the United States, the S & P 500 fell 1.55% at Bell. The Russian stock market is still closed, so it won’t collapse.
There is a real paradigm shift in this conflict. To get back to financial theory, I mostly want to talk about “Black Swan”. The impact is vast and difficult to quantify. In the short term, it disrupts the central bank’s strategy, which had already had to do much to make up for the delays accumulated in the fight against inflation. Investors had more or less predicted a 50 basis point rate hike from the US Central Bank on March 16th, but the forecast fell overwhelmingly to 25 points (94.4% according to CME’s FedWatch tool). Probability of). Federal Reserve Boss Jerome Powell will be auditioned exactly this afternoon within the framework of a semi-annual appointment by US MPs. The market will drink his words. However, central banks can heal financial wounds, at least if they manage their operations, but not geopolitical wounds.
Beyond the legitimate fear of the great fire it causes, the war in Ukraine is causing an increase in inflation. Brent’s barrel hung at $ 110 last night (it was worth half at the beginning of February 2021), and other raw materials are burning, especially at the agricultural level (S & PGSCI Agricultural Index is 1).er January) and industry. Here is the weekly report I created yesterday for these and other asset classes. And I’m not even talking about industrial supply lines that are even more distorted. Inevitably, our daily lives have very important implications, which also explain the reaction of the stock market index.
Meanwhile, the West continues to cut off relations with Russia at a dizzying pace. Economic, cultural, or digital connections are being cut off one after another. Later this morning, I listed new decisions in this direction. For example, BMW and Apple will not be sold domestically until further notice. Exxon Mobil will also let go of its partners Rosneft and EN +. Investors are not only affected through the index. For example, the highly established Austrian bank Raiffeisen in Eastern Europe and Russia has given up on previously announced dividends. Or, ruble bondholders have been trapped since Euroclear and Clearstream depositors stopped accepting Russian currencies. The list is long.
As is often the case, there are several levels of reading through the investment prism. The world is amazed by the image of Russia’s aggression and destruction, so blood and tears first. Short-term economic impact as conflict adds disorder to disorder. Deep impact on the background international and commercial relationships. In particular, a fairly new reality that Stephen Blitz explains very well in a paper published yesterday: economists say that the initiatives that cause major geopolitical shocks are no longer unique to the United States, and in summary, the past. To the turmoil of the world like. And this loss of US control over world affairs has moved the country from a positive position to an uncertain and responsive position. Old Europe lost this power a little over a century ago in the wrath of World War I.
Returning to the more basic considerations of, there is much hope for Jerome Powell’s intervention from 4 pm, even if it is difficult for the central bank to understand how the magic wand can solve the world’s problems. You can see that it is placed. Despite the decline the day before, the mood of the European market, which is showing signs of weakness this morning, remains bleak. Tokyo closed 1.7%, while mining-rich Sydney increased 0.3%. CAC decreased 0.4% to 6337 points.
Economic highlights of the day
February German Employment Statistics (9:55 am) and ADP US Employment Report (2:15 pm) precede the Fed’s Boss Jerome Powell hearing at Capitol Hill (4 pm). I will.
The euro fell to $ 1.1194 and the ounce of gold rose to $ 1936. The surge in oil continues. Brent is $ 110.06 and WTI is $ 108.55. US debt will be repaid at 1.74% in 10 years and the Bund will return to the negative territory at -0.08%. Bitcoin is moving close to US $ 44,000.
Major changes to recommendations
- ABB: HSBC will move from buying to maintaining, aiming for CHF 32.
- Atos: HSBC will move from buying to maintaining, aiming for € 30.
- Beiersdorf: Berenberg has remained long and the target price has been reduced from € 116 to € 106.
- Capgemini: Jeffreys remains on the buyer’s side and the price target has been lowered from € 270 to € 240.
- Carlsberg: Berenberg is still in short supply and the price target has been lowered from 883 DKK to 835 DKK.
- Croda: Jeffreys remains held with a price target reduced from 8000 to 7900GBp.
- Finnair: HSBC will move from maintenance to reduction with a target of 0.35 EUR.
- Flutter: JP Morgan remained overweight and the target was reduced from 17,010 to 15,990GBp.
- HelloFresh: Bernstein is still on sale and the target has been lowered from € 44 to € 39.
- NN Group: HSBC will move from holding to buying with a target of € 52.
- Novo Nordisk: Citigroup is moving from neutral to purchase, targeting 800 DKK.
- Rockwool: Berenberg will continue to be held with a price target reduced from 2800DKK to 2700DKK.
- Royal Mail: Liberum will move from holdings targeting 355GBp to selling.
- Schneider Electric: HSBC will move from holding to buying, aiming for 160 euros.
- Siemens GAMESA: HSBC will move from maintenance to reduction, aiming for € 15.
- Societe Generale: AlphaValue remains on the buyer’s side and the target price has been reduced from 40.25 to 35.70 euros.
- Spectris: HSBC will move from buy to hold, aiming for 2900 GBp.
- Swiss Life: Berenberg remains long with a price target raised from 657 to CHF 659.
- Veolia: Morgan Stanley will resume online weighted tracking with a goal of € 34.
- Vestas: HSBC will move from retention to reduction, aiming for 160 DKK.
- Theland: JP Morgan remains neutral and the target has been lowered from € 101 to € 90.
Publications of major results
- Albioma: The result is at the upper end of the target range, with a net profit of € 59 million in 2021.
- BioMérieux: Revenues in 2022 will decline, with adjusted operating profit of € 530 million to € 610 million.
- Interparfums: Results exceeded expectations.
- Vilmorin: The 2021/2022 margin target has been reduced from at least 8.5% to 7.5%.
Important (and less important) announcements
- Engie will comply with sanctions against Russia and increase gas purchases in Norway.
- EssilorLuxottica has completed sales to Vision Group, 174 stores in Italy.
- Pernod Ricard has a majority stake in Château Sainte-Marguerite (Provence).
- Vinci Construction is building Phase 1 of the New Princess Grace Hospital Center in Monaco.
- Atos strengthens the executive committee.
- Altarea does not buy Primonial.
- Corian complains about misleading or inaccurate claims after the publication of Cash Investigation magazine on EHPAD.
- Elior CEO Philippe Guillemot has resigned.
- Delta Plus Group has acquired SafetyLink, Australia’s fall protection system specialist.
- Esker is partnering with Fujitsu Asia to accelerate digital transformation in Singapore.
- Nicox’s licensee partner, Fera Pharmaceuticals, has received Naproxcinod’s orphan drug designation from the US FDA for the treatment of sickle cell disease.
- Cegedim and Malakoff Humanis Group, VYV Group and PRO BTP are in exclusive negotiations on shares in the capital of Cegedim Santé.
- Gaztransport & Technigaz, Alwena Shipping and CHI Zhoushan have, in principle, been approved by Bureau Veritas for a new LNG conversion concept combined with a vessel extension for very large container vessels.
- Groupe Open, Groupe CIOA, Europcar, Réalités and Les Constructeurs du bois publish their accounts and forecasts.
in the world
Publication of results
- Baidu: Quarterly results were well received, with titles in Hong Kong up 9.3%.
- Hewlett Packard Enterprise: After publishing the results, the stock was 2% off the session.
- Just Eat Takeaway: EBITDA losses amounted to € 350 million annually.
Important notice (and others)
- Index operator STOXX will remove 61 Russian companies from the index, including Gazprom, Lukoil, Sberbank, Rusal and Aeroflot.
- Sberbank will withdraw from the European market.
- Ericsson: The US Department of Justice believes the group is not fully communicating about Iraq’s risks.
- Raiffeisen has canceled the 2021 dividend due to the effects of the Russian conflict.
- Apple will stop selling products in Russia.
- Google blocks RT and Sputnik from European app stores.
- BMW will stop producing cars and exporting to Russia.
- According to Reuters, Ford announces its intention to operate electric vehicles and internal combustion engines as separate businesses.
- Boeing has shut down its business in Russia and is blocking access to sensitive data by local personnel.
- ExxonMobil abandons the Sakhalin 1 project and stops investing in Russia.
- Glencore is reviewing its holdings in Russian companies En + and Rosneft.
- Dätwyler has completed the acquisition of Yantai Xinhu Packing in China.
- Rivian is raising car prices by 20% because of inflationary pressures.
- SGS has acquired an Irish specialist in gas analysis.
- Sika has acquired Sable Marco in Canada.
- Neste has partnered with Marathon Petroleum to produce renewable diesel in the United States.
- The Shimao Group, a Chinese promoter, is collapsing after a debt restructuring proposal was announced.
- Major publications of the day: Snowflake, Ford, Fast Retailing, Coupang, Kune + Negel, Dollar Tree, Suburbank, BioMérieux, Persimmon, Telecom Italia, Just Eat Takeaway, Victoria’s Secret … Here’s all the agenda.