President: The abstention has been strongly announced, who will benefit?

Politics-“French people are very obsessed with democracy and are directly exercising universal suffrage for the President of the Republic,” he wants to believe in Gerald Dalmanin on Monday, March 21st. Within three weeks of the first round, voting agency abstention predictions sweat cold to candidates, and to more than others.

At least two different surveys of French voting intentions were conducted between March 18th and 21st, with similar results.67% of respondents say it is “certain” to vote in the first round (survey in partnership with Ipsos-Sopra Steria Cevipof and Jean Jaurès Foundation) world)... Or, the risk of abstention is 33%, which exceeds the presidential election record (28%) established during the second round of 2002.

A suspenseless election that benefits Macron?

The Minister of Interior, who is responsible for the proper organization of ballots, reassures us and relies on the unified aspect of the highest suffrage. The 2017 numbers prove he’s partially correct. Twenty days before the first round, Ifop gave 35% abstainers (31% in 2022). In the end, only 22% of voters abstained on D-Day.

But the candidate is worried. If Emmanuel Macron takes the lead with the intention of voting, it must be said that the second place is undecided and the threshold for accessing the second round is particularly low, less than 20%.

Anne Muxel, Cevipof’s Research Director, recognizes several reasons behind these predictions. It’s not just a particular concern (a pandemic and the subsequent war in Ukraine), the “crisis of political representatives”. “It’s an election where the results are mostly announced and not mobilized because there is no competition in the election,” she explains. Whatever the polls and their opponents, Emmanuel Macron was given the winner in the second round, and this pattern has never been denied since the first poll.

But at LREM, people like Christoph Castaner claim that the elections aren’t over. “There are no elections. Believing in it would be not only a political mistake, but also an ethical mistake.” Tell the French people, “Move around where there is nothing to see.” Is always a mistake, “he said on BFMTV on Monday.

But on the contrary, the fact remains that Emmanuel Macron is far from being most punished by the abstentions revealed by the latest investigations.

The left is the first to be penalized, especially Melenchon

The Ipsos study emphasizes groups that are abstainers more than other groups. According to the criteria of the social expert category, so-called classes that are popular with farmers and workers are the least likely to move (58% and 57%). This will penalize Marine Le Pen, a candidate for the National Rally.

But most of all, there is a lot to lose. “Left-wing voters (69%) are generally less likely to vote than LREM (78% for MoDem), LR (75% for UDI), RN, or Reconquest voters, regardless of political party. The left is the one who is hindered by the abstention. ” HuffPost Mathieu Gallard, Research Director at Ipsos.

In detail, left-wing candidates may need to be more worried than other candidates: rebellious Jean-Luc Melenchon. Only 66% of rebellious sympathizers say they will definitely vote against, for example, 75% of PCFs. As ecologist Yannick Jadot believes in Matthew Garrard, abstentions between the ages of 18 and 24, the age group most likely to avoid ballot boxes on April 10 (1 in 2 voters) Will definitely vote) can also hurt him.

Within Insoumis, the problem is well identified. As of August 2021, Jean-Luc Melenchon estimated that “if a popular circle does not vote, it will continue to vote as before.” This Sunday, in March of the Sixth Republic, Bouches-du-Rhone’s vice-member was openly flirting with young voters. For example, in his proposal to retire at the age of 60, “it’s about the same space as 100,000 young people. The labor market every year.” “As long as it is said that this country will never suffer from racism or hatred, I am confident in the ingenuity of the younger generation,” he launched again. The LFI candidate, who is currently in third place in the vote, has set a goal of scoring 5 points in three weeks to reach the second round.

Pecres and Macron have pins to draw

The saying goes that the misery of one person is the happiness of another. Valerie Pécrès is arguably the least worried candidate for abstention.

As with all elections, according to Ipsos, it is safest for the oldest population to actually vote, up to 81% for people over the age of 70. Similarly, the so-called “CSP +” category tends to put ballots in the ballot box, which can benefit the candidate Republican or Emmanuel Macron.

“Valérie Pécrès will probably benefit from a strong abstention because her voters are quite old and quite wealthy, and Emmanuel Macron, even with slight differences in age, He has a little the same voters, “explains Matthew Garrard.

However, everything could change in less than three weeks. According to an Ipsos study, only Emmanuel Macron, Marine Le Pen and Eric Zemmour benefit from the majority of voters who ensure voting and vote in the first round (68 by candidates). Between% and 77%). On the left, the intent does not seem to be so clear. Forty-two percent of Melenchon’s supporters believe their choices can still change, more than 50% for Yannick Jadot, Fabien Roussel and Anne Hidalgo. But again, on the right, Valerie Pécrès is 47%.

See also HuffPost: Melenchon’s petition for ballot boxes (and for those who don’t vote)