The 2022 presidential election will be on the 20th compared to 2017 from the beginning

Policy-20 days. This distinguishes the candidates for the 2022 presidential election from the first round, which will be held on Sunday, April 10. For the short 20 days of the campaign, competition still appears to be dominated by the duel formed by Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, but in difficult situations, the Ukrainian health crisis and war, and the economics caused by two events. Uncertainty becomes heavy About the economy of the country.

A scenario in which Jean-Luc Melenchon is trying to thwart by positioning himself as the third man in the event. Bouches-du-Rhône’s deputy feels that the second round is “within reach” and claims to bet on the 2017 precedent, throw a wider net and qualify thanks to voting. .. Can be used “Effective” he is trying to embody.

As shown in the voting compiler belowRebellious leaders have been constantly advancing for several days.

Jean-Luc Melenchon is currently displaying 13% of his voting intentions on the counter, ahead of two challengers, Valerie Pécrès and Eric Zemmour, in the second round. But is it enough to take the coveted step? “I have to find five points in three weeks,” said a stakeholder during the exchange with the reader. Parisian..

16% merenchon in 2017

Beyond your account and expectations, a glance at the rearview mirror provides another reading grid. Twenty days before the last presidential election (two weeks later than this year), rebellious French candidates were much higher in the vote, according to the Ifop poll conducted April 3-6. It was 16% of the intention to vote. 2017. It’s a very important score achieved when Benoit Hamon was announced at 9.5%, but it was actually synonymous with 4th place.

According to the same survey, Marine Le Pen is in the lead with a 24.5% vote intention (losing more than 3 points by the vote) and one month with the support of Emmanuel Macron (François Bayle). Above) followed. ), Announced at 24%. The third man in the race was François Fillon, who was entwined at the Penelope Gate, collecting only 18.5% of his willingness to vote. Partially confirmed polls were Emmanuel Macron at 24%, Marine Le Pen at 21.3%, followed by Francois Fillon (20%) and Jean-Luc Melenchon (19.6%).

To be on the safe side, the previous exercise was conducted in an unprecedented situation. This is because President-elect Francois Hollande has given up on his representative. The head of state, who saw his voting intent soar after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, is not this year. This makes access to the second round more difficult, as there are multiple places to contend, even if nothing has been decided.

Second round at 18% in 2022?

And if you could imagine a few weeks ago that the far-right split due to Eric Zemmour’s candidacy would lower the price of admission to the second round, the controversial adventure wouldn’t seem to be the case. Loosen the score of Marine Le Pen, who benefits from positive dynamics even at higher levels, like Jean-Luc Melenchon.

The rebellious French leader makes up for the lack of five points and takes less than three weeks to reach the “mousehole” that qualifies in the second round. In 2017 he collected 3.6, which was 16.6% on the night of April 10th (we’ll talk about simple math calculations here). On the contrary, the voting intent that Eric Zemmour enjoys seems to be declining day by day, so Marine Le Pen has all the interest in maintaining the lead without taking risks. Far-right controversy in the latest poll by Opinion Way Dropped to 9%..

See also The HuffPost: March of the Sixth Republic by Jean-Luc Mélenchon.