Ukraine: Are you heading for a war of attrition after a month of conflict?Three scenarios to consider

Only a month after the start of the war in Ukraine, the conflict with Russia is having a hard time finding a solution. Military experts evoke turning the latter into a “war of attrition.” Here are three possible scenarios of what you need to do and when the war will end.

Time goes by and death comes.Proverbs, military strategy, war Ukraine Get stuck For the Russians, and for Vladimir Putin, time can be as many allies as the enemy.Although the dispute was translated into an operation from day one army muscleThe Kremlin Army eventually had to increase its artillery and claim some superiority. So far there has been no clear and net success.

This Wednesday, March 23, a senior British defense official said Russia’s attack on Ukraine “war Of wear“February 24, a month after the start of the war. If this were the case, the consequences of both sides would be catastrophic.

“Russia’s operations have changed,” Defense Intelligence Director Jim Hockenhal said in a press conference that the Kremlin was “currently pursuing a consumption strategy” after failing to meet its “original goals.” The original goal was to succeed quickly, but today it has been significantly slowed down by international mobilization to support the defense of Ukraine and the army of Volodymyr Zelensky.

“This involves irresponsible and indiscriminate use of firepower,” and “will result in more civilian casualties, the destruction of Ukraine’s infrastructure, and intensify the humanitarian crisis,” he further warned.

A territory controlled by Russians one month after the start of the war.

A territory controlled by Russians one month after the start of the war.
Free lunch

Attrition warfare, what are we talking about?

The term “attrition warfare” used in the military field refers to any conflict aimed at by each enemy. Weaken and reduce other resources To Material wear When Psychological.. In the current conflict, more Russia are trying to destabilize Ukraine through blockades around major cities, such as: Mariupol for example.

The term emerged during World War I when two opposing camps each settled in a place and reached the final obstruction of a “war of position” consisting of not moving from there. Probably.

The military journal Défense Nationale describes it as an attrition warfare: Seeking the surrender of the enemy By running it out with a continuous loss of personnel and materials. Therefore, the strategy is simple. waiting“.

If Russia no longer monopolizes the attack, attrition warfare could take over. Conflicts can be protracted and costly.

Would you like to do it last to reign better?

“For Russia, not winning the war is losing it, and for Ukraine not losing the war is winning it. Nothing has been decided, Russia’s strategy has failedKyiv is still in the hands of the Ukrainians, the Russians have switched to a strategy of massive bombing and siege of the city, a lot from a little frustration, and already to save very high losses (about 10,000) Soldiers were killed, editor’s note) “, an analysis of Midi Libre Dominique Moishi, a founding member of Ifri.

The solution that can then be offered to Moscow is Continue the blockade To prioritize Civilian And it puts social pressure on the Ukrainian government without endangering the soldier. The risks of Vladimir Putin not only lose the war, but can also be a real dead end. Flark There is no end. A very dangerous diplomatic and financial scenario for the Kremlin’s head.

Three possible scenarios

According to Dominique Moï, three scenarios are possible. the first time“this is The following warMore and more people are killed, especially in war with civilians, and their economic and human consequences will be even greater. No one can beat the opponent, but they cannot agree to their terms. This is a long war scenario. ” What is starting to appear now.

Second scenario of Military expansion.. In the face of Ukrainian resistance, Russia may decide to bombard major cities like Kyiv and Odessa like Mariupol on a large scale. Russia could even use “weapons of mass destruction”, but that is unlikely. However, Vladimir Putin’s unpredictability does not completely rule out this catastrophic scenario.

Lastly,”Better“” scenario Consists of Diplomatic issues between the two countries.. Summary by Ifrit experts: “Russia lost Ukraine, Ukraine lost the eastern part of Crimea and Donbus. Ukraine gave up joining NATO, but it is joining a club of values ​​open to it. .European Union”. Therefore, Ukraine can return to its pre-February situation by maintaining access to the Black Sea. But by completely abandoning part of the Crimean Peninsula and Donbus. According to diplomatic experts, “the way of reason.”

However, this compromise still seems far away. Neither Ukraine nor Russia are willing to make such a concession. Western sanctions, rising pressure and Ukrainian resistance are all factors that could end the war at the risk of Moscow questioning the power of Vladimir Putin …