Why Eric Zemmour plunged in a vote three weeks before the first round

Candidate Reconquista is stuck in a poll stuck between the war and purchasing power in Ukraine. Former journalists also pay the price of the novelty effect of lack of steam.

Like a kind of cry for help. When Eric Zemmour’s bad polls piled up and he fell below 10%, the iconic bar of the Opinion Way barometer, Candidate Reconquista began appealing to supporters at Mets on Friday night, saying, “All Called to fight. “Odds” to prevent “elections being stolen”.

I have to say that the campaign of a former journalist is urgent. Air pockets can also be felt on the ground if the opinion survey is delayed. In Moselle, he welcomed him and was unable to fill the 4,000-seat room.

Ukrainian refugee foot changes

As an explanation for this very bad patch, we first find the war in Ukraine. According to an IFOP poll, 79% of French say they are in favor of welcoming Ukrainian refugees, but like almost all presidential candidates, the former editors initially gave a completely different view. I did.

“I want (Ukrainian refugees) to be in Poland. When the war is over, they will be able to get home more easily,” Eric said at the RTL on February 28. Zemmour explained.

The candidate retreated in the face of protests and parts of his camp that did not share his position.

“If they have a relationship with France, a French family, we give them a visa. What I don’t want is an emotional tsunami,” said BFMTV, March 8. The Reconquest boss finally explained.

I don’t feel the opinion

This bad sequence is paid for in today’s polls. “He didn’t know how to feel the surprise of France in the face of what’s happening in Ukraine, and he continued to apply his logic of radicalism to many nuance-worthy subjects,” ViaVoice. Election Sociology and Consultants.

The former columnist is also blamed for his words of praise to the Russian president.

“He took a country that was an empire, it could have been a great power, I think he’s trying to straighten it. I would dream of Poutine in France, but nothing,” said a former politician. Said. opinion September 18, 2018.

Four years later, Eric Zemmour expressed skepticism about the possibility of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “I confess that I don’t believe it, but I could be wrong,” he decided on February 20 in Europe 1.

Comments on Putin have not been evaluated by his own voters

This analysis error has a particularly strong impact on former journalists.

“His voter candidate, who frequently voted for Francois Fillon in 2017 and came primarily from the top categories, is very sensitive to international affairs. This kind of remark made them very uncomfortable.” Bruno Cautrès, a political scientist at Cevipof, analyzes BFMTV. com.

Candidates also struggle to find their place in a campaign that is very focused on purchasing power, far from his favorite immigration and security themes, as fuel and raw material prices are rising. doing.

Anxiety about purchasing power

Asked about his economic program before MEDEF on February 22, the 60-year-old didn’t want to deviate from his political boundaries.

“The problem with France is immigration. We believe we have to stop all immigrants,” he said, his main competitor, Marine Le Pen, who has focused his campaign on purchasing power since September. Said far away from the pen.

Very present in the media space at the beginning of autumn and winter, the candidate also pays for his management of speaking time. His campaign team may have made a number of bets on the officially announced support for Marion Maréchal during the meeting in Turon on March 7. This rout could not be broadcast on television, for example.Eric Zemmour is already Time to talk It was assigned to him by the rules of Arcom (ex-CSA).

Historian François Durpaire also points out the media effects that are being eroded.

“When he left woodworking last September, there was a very strong novelty around this candidate who had never participated in politics, and a few months later, this is not new. The grand candidate has lost momentum. “Co-author of comic strip Elegy, This envisions the first few months of elections and the power of a former columnist.

Follow in the footsteps of Francois Fillon

Former journalists still want to fight within three weeks of the first round. To climb the hill, the candidate is betting on his meeting on Sunday, March 27, in Trocadero, Paris. The place was clearly not chosen by accident. This is where Francois Fillon tried to unleash his power in the midst of a political storm five years ago.

However, the symbols can be surprising. Former Prime Minister finished third in the first round of 2017, and Nicolas Sarkozy, who had a meeting between the 2012 rounds, lost to Francois Hollande.

It doesn’t matter if the candidate decides on historian Jean Eve Camas, who is already in the presidency.

“This shows that he is strangled and wants to target right-wing voters who are being seduced by Valerie Pécrès, and to reconstruct around the reconquest. “, Says this far-right expert.

Therefore, it is far from the possible second round.