Why it’s important for the French

Rising prices on pumps, impacts on farmers, risk of cyber attacks, potential refugee crisis … If the complexity of tensions between Russia and Ukraine is not of interest to you, a series of conflicts can cause. The influence of the butterfly should be relevant to you. If the situation remains very unpredictable, Marianne will consider the possible consequences for France.

The crisis can (further) increase the price of pumps

The turmoil of Russian tanks at the Ukrainian border should be felt at service stations and could further weigh on the French portfolio. Russia is certainly the third largest oil supplier in the world after Saudi Arabia and the United States, and in particular the world’s leading gas supplier. New tensions have already caused a barrel of oil prices to rise, now close to $ 100.

“Prices have been very high since September. It has been pushed up by very strong global demand. The Ukrainian crisis has added volatility to the market, but so far, how much the price is. It is difficult to determine if it could rise, especially depending on the nature of Western sanctions.Decrypt with, Marianne Locatelli, CNRS researcher, specialist in the Russian gas and oil industry.

For the time being, Russia continues to export oil and gas, and hydrocarbons are not affected by Western sanctions on the Russian administration. “I don’t think Russia or the West are interested in blocking imports, but this economic reality may be overwritten by political issues.”But I believe in Catherine Locateri.

Also read: Russia-Ukraine Crisis: Three Most Probable Scenarios

Even if France is less dependent on Russia’s gas than its neighbors such as Germany, the situation is very worrisome as far as gas is concerned. “Gas imports are more diversified in France and are quite positive to avoid supply disruptions. But Russian gas is cheaper than liquefied gas that can be imported from the United States, for example. And hydrocarbons from Russia. If exports are low, it will automatically push up market prices. Fluctuations depend on the strength of the disturbance. “, Catherine Locateri explains. Therefore, the expansion of Ukraine is very bad news for French consumers.

Farmers are very worried

The Ukrainian crisis should be central to discussions at the Agricultural Show, which is scheduled to begin in Paris this weekend. “Economic sanctions on Russia create a great risk of retaliation against European products, first and foremost agricultural products.”On Tuesday, February 23, Christiane Lambert, chairman of FNSEA, a majority agricultural union, was worried about the BFM business.

Above all, the crisis can have chained consequences for French farmers. “Production costs can rise, especially if the price of gas soars. Gas is 80% of the price of fertilizer and is needed for crops, especially wheat.”Patricia Le Carde, Director of Food and Animal Research at Cereopa, a design firm attached to AgroParisTech, was interviewed: Marianne..

The price of wheat, a major strategic issue, has risen by just under 10% in a week. Russia and Ukraine are certainly two very large grain exporters. “Rising prices are affecting breeders who buy grain to feed their animals. This is a risk that makes them difficult if the manufacturing costs are already very high compared to the selling price of the product. there is.”, Patricia Le Caddle continues.. “When we talk about wheat, we often think of baguette prices, but the cereals in them are actually only 6%. This is less than the cost of energy, but two. If you increase it together, the price of the bakery may be pushed up. “Says Patricia Le Cadre.

New refugee crisis?

Eleven years after the Syrian crisis, the European Union may face a new immigration crisis. French authorities are hoping for migration and the arrival of asylum seekers in France. Ofpra Secretary (French office for the protection of refugees and stateless persons) plans “Potential asylum demands, not just internal evacuation of Ukraine”.

Also read: Ukraine, Kharkov, very close to the front line, we are preparing for the worst

US intelligence estimates that the Ukrainian invasion could cause an influx of 1 to 5 million refugees. The Norwegian Refugee Council is talking about the possibility of evacuation of 2 million people. This could be the largest migration of Europe’s population since the end of World War II.

Military turmoil

“Ukraine escalation definitely points to a military paradigm shift.”Analyze, General Dominique Trinquand. Escalation in Ukraine confirms that the staff has been repeating in recent months. France must now accelerate its preparations for a “fierce conflict” against countries with similar military means. If, like the Sahel, peacekeeping operations and rebellion suppression operations have only been carried out for 20 years, the military is not well prepared for it.

“Since 1990, the French army has always funded modernization by reducing the number of personnel and platforms.”, I noted the report by IFRI (French Institute for International Relations). For example, the soldiers who wrote this report said France had only 200 tanks in 2030, compared to 1,349 in 1991. In a parliamentary report released on Tuesday, February 22, “Immediate financial effort”,Especially “Recovering French ammunition inventory”.. According to parliamentarians, this spending alone has a shortfall of € 6 billion or € 7 billion. This means that budget selection is difficult.

Increased risk of cyber attacks

Westerners are concerned about the possibility of cyberattacks in response to sanctions imposed on Russian banks and parliamentarians. According to Bank of France Governor François Billroy de Garhow, the European banking supervision system calls on European banks to increase their vigilance against the risk of cyberattacks in the context of the worsening crisis in Russia and Ukraine. I am.

Also read: Ukraine-Russia Conflict: What Vladimir Putin’s hatred does not allow to see

For the past few weeks, Western authorities have rang Toksin. “We are not aware of any specific attacks targeting British organizations related to what is happening in Ukraine, but Ukraine has a historical pattern of cyberattacks with international consequences.”According to Reuters, it warned the UK National Center for Cybersecurity. The cyber war was particularly fierce in Ukraine, with several Ukrainian ministries being targeted again on Wednesday, February 23.