Why Macron is lagging behind polls

The head of state, who was lately declared a candidate for reelection, announced his proposal on Thursday. A program in which 42% are perceived as “neither innovative nor innovative” and their presentation precedes a decline in opinion.

Join warning or simple effect? Emmanuel Macron recorded a decline in voting intentions in the first round of the presidential election for the second straight week, according to an Elabe poll conducted on BFMTV. Express SFR released on Tuesday.

Leaders who came out long ago in all polls after formalizing their candidacy in the “Letter to France” on March 3, after recently participating in the campaign, reduced their voting intentions by 27.5%, or 3.5 points. I recorded it. Last week, Emmanuel Macron was already suffering a three-point drop. Therefore, in two weeks, the candidate head of state lost almost all of the 8.5 points he earned when he declared himself against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine.

Advances in Le Pen and Melenchon

If Emmanuel Macron remains firmly in the lead, his opponents are making progress. Marine Le Pen scored points, accounting for 20% of voting intentions, and Jean-Luc Melenchon accounting for 15%. Eric Zemmour and Valerie Pécrès are down 0.5 points and 1.5 points, respectively, and rarely exceed 10%.

The victory is also narrower in the fictitious second round between Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron. The far-right candidate grabs 3.5% of the vote, rises to 44%, and faces incumbents who only collect more than 56 people. % Of the vote. In 2017, in this same poster, former Minister of Economy of Francois Hollande won with 66.1% of the votes. This is a potential difference of 10 points compared to our survey.

“Emmanuel Macron, as we know it, is monopolized by his presidency, but his refusal to argue does not work in public opinion,” said BFMTV Matthew Croisando, a political columnist. increase. While he finds time to make videos on very sophisticated social networks, he has a big meeting, a moment to a big gathering. “

The meeting is supposed to take place in Paris on April 2, but its location is unknown at this time.

Split proposal

Matthieu Croissandeau also emphasized “a very long press conference on Thursday,” during which time he developed his program for over four hours.

“All this hasn’t created the momentum or breath of this second presidential election,” he analyzes.

According to our findings, the voters questioned generally take a stern view of Emmanuel Macron’s program. Nearly 7 out of 10 French people do not think that they are “neither innovative nor innovative”, and 61% think that they do not live up to their expectations or improve their daily lives. 51% think it is unrealistic and 47% think it is not clear or accurate.

“If Emmanuel Macron voters make far more positive decisions, the program will not get unanimous support. 42% of them believe it is neither innovative nor innovative,” Elabe said. Diagnose.

However, some measures are widely supported in the eyes of the questioned people. Therefore, 92% are in favor of hiring 50,000 nurses and nursing assistants in nursing homes, 88% of the minimum pension increase to 1100 euros and 84% of taxes. With the abolition of TV license fees, up to € 150,000 and even 83% duty-free real estate. The RSA reform, which requires payment on the condition of exercising 15 to 20 hours of activity per week, has also been agreed by 72% of people.

Therefore, if many measures are well recognized, one evokes a protest: the statutory retirement age reduction to age 65 is rejected by 69%. Another lesson is that if 50% of French people think that a protected program is neither right nor left, 43% think it’s pretty correct.

Demobilization risk

At the moment, only 58% of French people say they “vote completely”, but this number could increase further when it comes to the possibility of abstention. According to Elabe polls, 64% of those asked predict Emmanuel Macron’s victory. We don’t really encourage participation, “Matthieu Croissandeau diagnoses.

Risk of Emmanuel Macron eavesdropping in a meeting with a majority of executives on March 9: “The next few weeks will be a decisive week. The worst is a form of arrogance, everything is done and surely resolved. I will do it, “he warned the presidential candidate. It seems that it has already taken root in public opinion.

Survey conducted by Elabe Institute for BFMTV Express And SFR. The question was asked to a sample of 1,450 people who were added to the voter list and represented according to the allocation method via the Internet on March 20th and 21st, 2022. The margin of error is between 1.1 and 2.5.

Claris Martin BFMTV journalist